We initiate a coverage for Qantas in an objective manner. The estimates in our research are derived from our research framework which takes into account the domestic and international aviation industry conditions, competitive advantages, and past financial performance.

The in-depth analysis of our research has also factored in management capabilities, catalysts, and possibilities for Qantas. We have also considered the impact of COVID-19 on Qantas and forecasted its future performance accordingly


We estimate the intrinsic value of Qantas to be $4.24/share through a DCF model. The current share price of $3.50 represents a 17.5% discount. Currently trading at trailing P/E 6.12 and EV/EBITDA 3.58, Qantas’ relative valuation is at appropriate level vs industry peers. Upon considering the valuation and all the factors discussed, we hold a Neutral outlook for Qantas


  • Inherent risks in the airline industry: volatility in fuel price and foreign exchange, increasing intensity of competition, exposure to the fluctuation of economy, irreducible risks arising from exogenous events.
  • Direct impact of COVID-19: possibility of more prolonged crisis than expected, uncertainty of pace of recovery, significant labour surplus, increased debt load, uncertainty of further debt/equity raising.

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